Įspecially important to this youth vote is the contribution of young women. This is amplified by the fact that this age group-as in the 2018 midterms and 2020 presidential election -registered a rise in turnout compared to pre-2018 elections, according to a Tufts University analysis. It is one of the few demographic groups to show a higher D-R margin in the nationwide House vote than for the 2020 presidential election (D-R value of 28 in 2022, compared to 24 in 2020). Yet in 2022, the 18- to 29-year-old age group (made up of Gen Z and the youngest millennials) showed an even more pronounced shift toward Democrats. ) Young people, especially young women, drove the Democratic advantageĪmong the youngest Americans, Democrats have held an advantage in votes for House of Representatives candidates in every midterm or presidential election since the late 1990s. (Demographic groups’ D-R vote margins for select Senate and governor’s elections, respectively, are found in downloadable Table B and downloadable Table C. Some of these are accentuated in elections with strong partisan results, such as the gubernatorial contests in Pennsylvania and Florida. While most national demographic voter patterns hold, there are key differences across states. This analysis also looks at D-R vote margins for demographic groups in states with competitive Senate or governor’s races. (Comparisons of national group D-R vote margins across recent elections can be found in downloadable Table A. In contrast, groups long associated with former President Donald Trump’s base (such as older voters and white male non-college graduates) stayed with Republican candidates. Especially notable among these groups were young adults. 1 2 They show that among people voting for House of Representatives candidates, key demographic groups that traditionally favor Democrats (young people, women, racial minorities, and white female college graduates) played a significant role-but only some of these groups showed as strong or stronger a D-R margin than was the case in the 2020 presidential election or previous midterms. In order to better understand how Democrats avoided big losses in the 2022 midterms, this analysis examines Democratic minus Republican (D-R) vote margins using 2022 exit polls data and those of earlier elections compiled by Edison Research.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |